Crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf surged last week to over 14 million barrels per day, crossing the 14 million barrels per day mark for the first time since the start of the Iran war on February 28.
According to published data, Persian Gulf crude oil exports have increased by more than 210% from a low of about 4.5 million barrels per day in March. The four-week average of exports has now reached around 14 million barrels per day, marking the highest level in the past six months.
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Export Status and Existing Challenges
Despite this increase, Persian Gulf crude oil exports are still about 20% lower than pre-war levels and have returned to about 80% of the usual amount before the onset of hostilities.
The increase in oil flow has occurred as shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz has improved, and with the increased military presence of the United States, a shipping route along the coasts of Oman has been established. This route has allowed tankers and oil transport convoys to resume passage through the Strait of Hormuz, reviving part of the oil export flow in the region that was severely disrupted in the early months of the war.
Challenges in the Oil Products Market
However, the situation in the oil products market remains different from that of crude oil. Shipments of products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are still about 50% of pre-war levels, indicating that the pace of recovery in product flows has been nearly half that of crude oil exports.
One reason for this situation is the higher cost of transporting oil products compared to crude oil. On the other hand, some refineries in the Persian Gulf region that were damaged in the early stages of the war have not yet fully returned to production.
Recent developments hold an important point for the global energy market; the return of crude oil to the market does not necessarily mean the resolution of the oil products crisis. While Persian Gulf oil exports have reached about 80% of pre-war levels, the flow of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is only about 50% of pre-war levels. Therefore, the main bottleneck in the current energy market is more about refining capacity, transportation of products, and the return of damaged refineries to production.
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