The recent Israeli election results, which have led to no clear winner, will bring long-term uncertainties for Donald Trump, the President of the United States, regarding the leadership of Washington's closest ally in the Middle East. This comes as Trump faces serious challenges from Iran and Gaza in the region.
Political Conditions in Israel and Election Results
The highest-ranking Israeli official, Benjamin Netanyahu, secured the most seats in the Israeli parliament with his right-wing bloc, but still lost the parliamentary majority. This election took place especially after the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, and the ongoing wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Despite Netanyahu appearing to be in a stronger position, neither side is able to form a new government.
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However, the current situation points to a long period of complex negotiations to form a coalition or the possibility of holding new elections, while Netanyahu remains in power as a caretaker prime minister.
Challenges Facing Trump in the Middle East
The major challenge Trump faces is how he will interact with Israel in the war against Iran. This conflict, which has been ongoing for eight months, has had significant impacts on global energy supply and gasoline prices in the United States, leading to a decline in Trump's popularity and threatening Republican control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections on November 3.
On October 18, Trump emphasized his support for Netanyahu and called for him to remain in power to help him "finish the job against Iran." He also noted that Netanyahu performed better in electoral forecasts and that his support has helped strengthen Netanyahu's position.
Trump has repeatedly mentioned that the United States and Israel could launch new attacks against Iran after the midterm elections, which some critics, including those in Israel, suggest that Netanyahu might use as a way to bolster his political position as a caretaker prime minister.
Impact on Peace Efforts in Gaza
Regardless of the formation of a new Israeli government, there is no reason to believe in fundamental changes in the hardline policies towards the Palestinians. This situation will soon lead to an escalation of diplomatic problems between Israel and Hamas and will overshadow the full implementation of Trump's peace plan for Gaza. In response to the deadly attacks by insurgents, Israel has destroyed a large part of Gaza and taken the lives of tens of thousands of Palestinians.
Trump administration officials have privately expressed frustration over what they see as Netanyahu's inflexibility, with Netanyahu believing that Hamas must first surrender.
Eisenkot, who lost two sons and two nephews in the Gaza war, is trying to present himself as a moderate option. He has also committed to preventing Israeli violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, while Netanyahu's government has been criticized for tolerating these attacks.
Despite predictions of political instability in Israel in the near future, Trump must face increasing pressure from Democrats whose support for Israel has waned due to its actions in the Gaza war. This could lead to pressure on Trump to reduce billions in U.S. aid and arms supplies.
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