The United States appears to be preparing to resume extensive military attacks against Iran. Experts believe that neither side can achieve a military solution in this devastating conflict.
Recent Developments in the Middle East
Forces from Washington and Tehran have reached a pattern of attacks on commercial ships, with the U.S. attempting to impose a blockade on Iranian ports while the Islamic Republic seeks to control the Strait of Hormuz. Since early September, neither country has conducted major attacks on ground targets, but this situation may change soon.
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Susan Maloney, director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, suggests that attacks may increase close to the midterm elections in the United States, which are scheduled for November 3. She pointed to signs including the repositioning of military assets and American forces to the Middle East, warnings issued to Americans in the region, and the high state of readiness of Israeli forces.
Evidence and Indicators
The Trump administration has publicly stated that it will not conduct an attack before the midterm elections, as such an action would not be beneficial for him in the polls. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which began in late February, is widely unpopular in America, particularly due to the sharp rise in fuel prices, which is likely to negatively impact Trump’s Republican voter base.
Maloney also noted that the current situation is fundamentally unstable and that the U.S. blockade "causes more pain for Iranians," while Washington has engaged many of its naval assets to enforce it. She emphasized that some form of resolution, whether through diplomacy or military action, must exist.
In response to a question about Iran, Trump told reporters, "We can finish this very quickly," but added that the question is, "Do we want to finish it completely or... do we just want to let it die on its own?"
Tom Barak, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and special representative for Syria and Iraq, also stated that an attack could "definitely" occur this weekend, ahead of Tuesday's elections in Israel.
Jason Campbell, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute, clarified that there are clear signs that renewed attacks are likely or that "the United States expects attacks from Iran or its Houthi allies in Yemen." He referenced the deployment of the USS Theodore Roosevelt to the Middle East, which could temporarily increase the number of carrier strike groups to three, as well as the decision to send another Marine unit to the region.
Campbell also noted that Israeli warplanes recently conducted a "show of force" similar to previous attacks against Iran and mentioned U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.
However, he emphasized that "predicting the timing of these attacks is impossible" and added that "this is a very broad set of actions if the goal is merely to pressure Iran to come to the negotiating table." Campbell also pointed to the additional constraints that Trump now faces, particularly due to damage to American bases in the region that has made ground operations more difficult.
Maloney ultimately stated that "most conventional military sites (in Iran) have already been seriously damaged," meaning that any new campaign will likely lead to "more attacks on civilian infrastructure and targets affecting the Iranian population." However, such actions or any other military measures are unlikely to resolve this conflict.
She said, "From the beginning... this is a war that cannot end with further escalation from either side." Campbell agrees, stating, "I don't see how renewed attacks on Iran, similar to the first fifty days of the war, could create a strategic change for the Iranian regime." He added, "They have shown their willingness to endure a significant amount of physical damage, and even changes in targeting that include key or even civilian infrastructure will not significantly change this situation."
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