The war that began on February 27, 2025, with attacks from the United States and the Israeli regime against Iran, has had profound and widespread consequences for the global economy. Experts believe that the current situation is unsustainable and we are approaching a moment of "decision."
The Impact of War on Energy Facilities and Shipping Routes
Tankers cautiously passing through the Strait of Hormuz face dangers such as being targeted or colliding with mines. Energy facilities in the Persian Gulf have been damaged, and oil prices have risen to $110. This situation reflects the increasing costs that the continuation of the war poses for the United States and its allies, making the persistence of this situation impossible.
In recent days, the scope of these pressures has intensified; attacks on commercial ships have increased, and energy export routes are facing new disruptions. Concerns about the security of internet cables and data centers have extended the economic threat of the war to communication and financial networks.
Decline in Oil Flow and Damage to Ports
The Strait of Hormuz has witnessed fluctuations in tanker traffic in recent months. In September, oil exports from Gulf countries reached a level higher than before the war, but the increase in maritime attacks in October showed that this situation cannot signify sustainable security. Estimates indicate a decline of about 6 million barrels in oil and condensate flow.
Ports and loading facilities are as crucial as oil wells, and attacks on these infrastructures have fueled instability in the energy market. Since the beginning of the war, at least 135 missile and drone attacks have been recorded against 84 infrastructural points in Gulf countries. These damages could reduce oil transfer flow and prolong queues of tankers at ports.
Saudi Arabia, which has made significant investments to reduce its dependence on oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, has recently been targeted by missile attacks, raising concerns about the security of its export facilities. However, Aramco has managed to repair many of the damages quickly, although the costs of maintaining production have significantly increased.
