The credit outlook for the United States will generally remain positive despite tighter financing conditions. Fitch Ratings announced that high interest rates and the increased need for financing for investments in artificial intelligence may exert pressure on lower-rated borrowers and sectors sensitive to interest rate changes.
U.S. Economic Growth Forecast
Fitch has raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth for 2026 and 2027 by 0.2 percent to 2.1 percent. This growth is supported by resilient consumer spending and private investments based on artificial intelligence. Fixed investment is expected to increase by 4.8 percent in 2026 and by 4.6 percent in 2027.
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Pressure on Borrowers and Interest Rates
Fitch expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 4.25 percent in December and maintain this level until 2027, which will create additional pressure on borrowers seeking refinancing at higher costs. The recent decision by the Federal Reserve, announced on Wednesday, kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.75 to 4 percent, while policymakers continue to assess high inflation.
Financing conditions are also influenced by the significant supply of U.S. Treasury bonds and the increased borrowing by large technology companies to finance capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence. The issuance of U.S. fixed securities in the first nine months of 2026 has increased by 10.4 percent compared to the previous year, while corporate bond issuance has risen by 24.5 percent.
Although the expansion of investment-grade bonds remains at near multi-year highs, the yield on debt rated CCC has widened by nearly 480 basis points since the beginning of the year. Investment in artificial intelligence continues to be one of the main drivers of growth and also a potential source of remaining financial risks.
Fitch warned that increasing competition and cheaper free-weight artificial intelligence models could weaken pricing power among AI service providers and force companies to rethink their capital expenditure plans over the next one to three years. A negative scenario for AI stock corrections could lead to a recession in the United States, with GDP expected to decline by 0.6 percent in 2027.
The agency also noted increasing pressure on some borrowers. The private credit default rate in the United States reached a record 6.3 percent in the 12 months ending September 2026, while defaults on leveraged loans are expected to rise towards the lower end of the projected annual range of 4.5 to 5 percent.
Fitch's outlook indicates that while the U.S. credit market remains generally resilient, borrowers facing high refinancing costs and sectors dependent on ongoing investment in artificial intelligence may face increased pressure in the coming months.
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