Potential restrictions on diesel exports from the United States are considered a possible scenario that could have significant implications for domestic and global diesel markets. According to Goldman Sachs, these restrictions may initially lead to a decrease in diesel prices in the United States, but ultimately could create upward pressure on gasoline prices.
Initial Effects on Diesel Prices
Goldman Sachs has noted in a recent report that if export restrictions are implemented, including quota allocations, domestic diesel prices in the United States could decrease by about $0.25 per gallon. This decrease would result from increased inventories and pressure on producers to reduce output. Currently, U.S. net diesel exports have risen from 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 to about 1.6 million barrels per day in recent months.
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Long-Term Consequences and Global Effects
Goldman Sachs predicts that after storage capacity is filled, weekly export restrictions could increase gasoline prices by $0.30 per gallon. This price pressure may even begin before reaching the theoretical storage capacity limit. Globally, diesel prices in Europe are also expected to rise, with each week of export bans potentially increasing wholesale diesel prices in Europe by about $3 per barrel.
Ultimately, Goldman Sachs states that after the restrictions are lifted, U.S. diesel prices are likely to realign with international prices. However, due to reduced inventories resulting from temporary production cuts at refineries, global refined product prices may remain higher than they should be.
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