The economies of Gulf Cooperation Council countries are in a critical situation as tensions in the region escalate and Iran threatens to target submarine internet cables, adding new dimensions to this challenge. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has identified seven submarine cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz as potential targets.
Economic and Digital Impacts
Although the traffic volume of these cables does not exceed one percent of global internet traffic, significant investments are being made in this area. Microsoft will invest $٤٠٠ million in regional connectivity routes by ٢٠٣٠. This, in turn, raises concerns about the continuity of these projects in the event of security disruptions.
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Alan Safa, an economic expert and professor at the University of Nice, France, states that targeting digital infrastructure and communication cables in the region could pose serious risks to the Arab Gulf countries. These countries are moving towards a service-based and digitized economy, and thus, any disruption in these infrastructures could harm key sectors.
Major Investments and Vulnerabilities
Investments by Arab Gulf countries in artificial intelligence projects and data centers exceed $٢٥٠ billion. These investments include Saudi Arabia's $١٠٠ billion initiative and Qatar's $٢٠ billion partnership. These projects aim to enhance data center capacity and improve digital infrastructure, but security threats could jeopardize these efforts.
Previous experiences have also shown that cyberattacks can have a profound impact on banking and commercial services. Attacks that occurred last March on Amazon's facilities in the UAE and Bahrain disrupted cloud services and highlighted the vulnerability of digital infrastructures in the region.
Firas Shabou, an economic expert and professor of financial management at Başakşehir University in Turkey, emphasizes that targeting submarine internet cables could directly impact the banking sector and disrupt daily services. Furthermore, such attacks could increase financing costs and make access to financial services more difficult.
The map of fiber optic distribution routes in the region shows that different countries are at varying levels of risk. Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are particularly vulnerable due to the lack of any submarine routes outside the Strait of Hormuz.
Ultimately, these threats could halt the flow of foreign investment and seriously impact the development of technology and digital infrastructures in Gulf countries. Currently, trust in this region is heavily influenced by the security of its infrastructures, and restoring this trust requires time and serious efforts.
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