The United States government under the leadership of Donald Trump has once again threatened military action against Iran, which has led to deep concerns among Gulf countries. This threat clearly indicates the alarming situation that Gulf countries find themselves in, and the possibility of another war being decided in Washington has made them extremely anxious.
Risks from U.S. Military Bases
In the past conflicts, Iran fired missiles at U.S. military bases and energy facilities in the Gulf, highlighting vulnerabilities in the long-standing U.S. security structure in the region. Instead of deterring Tehran, the extensive U.S. military bases have provided Iran with fixed targets and turned their host countries into pressure points that can be exploited.
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These concerns were discussed at the annual Manama Security Dialogue held in Bahrain last weekend. Officials and policymakers addressed what this would mean for U.S. forces and the countries hosting them.
Likelihood of War and Regional Diplomacy
Given Trump's repeated threats of military action, European officials have also warned that the U.S. has gathered enough forces and equipment in the region to attack Iran, which may happen soon. A European official close to Gulf leaders stated, "War is on the way, but no one supports it."
The Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, emphasized at the Manama conference that a new round of conflicts could be more dangerous and destructive than before, stating, "This war will lead nowhere."
Meanwhile, Iran has also announced that it is ready to respond to any potential attack from the U.S. and Israel, having prepared a precise list of its targets in this regard. This strategy could extend the costs of war beyond the battlefield and put energy infrastructure, communication networks, and public facilities in Gulf cities at risk.
Ultimately, this situation pressures Gulf governments to turn to diplomacy. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have recently engaged in talks with Iranian officials in Tehran to prevent further military escalation. Anwar Gargash, a senior UAE official at the Manama conference, stated that they hope to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough and do not want to witness a new round of conflicts in the region.
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