The war with Iran, as a bitter reality, has called into question the Gulf countries' confidence in the United States' security umbrella and challenged their economic resilience. In this context, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has examined the impacts of this war on the security environment and the relationships of the Gulf countries with their foreign partners in a report set to be published on October 30, 2026.
The Impact of Crises on the Gulf Countries
Over the past two decades, multiple crises such as the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic have increased the global importance of the Gulf countries. Especially during times of crisis, these countries have played a significant role in maintaining the momentum of global investment flows. During this period, they became providers of "patient capital" and gained international acclaim.
Following the Arab Spring in 2011, the Arab regional order underwent transformation, and the Gulf countries, particularly Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, became more active and bolder players on the international stage. In this context, since 2018, due to the intensification of great power competition among China, Russia, and the United States, the Gulf countries have found themselves in a unique position to adapt to new conditions.
Security Challenges Arising from the War
The war with Iran, as the most destructive conflict, will have a profound impact on the foreign, defense, and economic policies of the Gulf countries. These countries have borne the brunt of Iran's military retaliation in response to U.S. and Israeli actions and are facing serious economic disruptions, particularly in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In this war, which has led to deep economic disruptions, the Gulf countries are confronted with new challenges in terms of security and welfare. They had developed optimistic economic outlooks based on their confidence in their security, which are now being challenged.
The emergency measures that these countries have implemented so far include strengthening regional alliances, enhancing capabilities to counter new threats, and creating alternative infrastructures. However, further efforts are needed to revise their foreign and military policies and redefine their economic priorities.
Throughout this war, the Gulf countries have showcased their resilience and steadfastness. Nevertheless, the future of security and welfare in these countries is at risk, and there is a pressing need for serious actions to rebuild and strengthen infrastructures.
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