Tehran - Iran's ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as an economic tool is diminishing. This strategic waterway has increasingly gained importance in efforts to end the war with the United States. This paradox has become a challenge for Tehran, as the United States and Gulf countries have become accustomed to changes and disruptions in this region, while Iran's power to leverage threats of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is decreasing.
Changes in Oil Export Flows
Recent data may indicate this change. According to Kpler estimates, the average daily oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reached 13.19 million barrels in the week ending September 27, which constitutes about 77% of the level of 17.13 million barrels per day before the war. This data shows that while confirmed daily flows have been significantly variable, recent statistics are still being updated upwards as more deliveries have been confirmed.
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Maritime Traffic Status and Existing Challenges
This is a significant improvement, although the Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to pre-war performance levels, when approximately 125 large commercial vessels passed through it daily. Recent traffic remains significantly below this rate, and some ships are traveling by turning off their tracking systems. This situation may indicate new concerns and challenges that the maritime fleet in this region is facing.
In this context, Iran faces serious challenges. While the country seeks to maintain its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, the reduction of capabilities and changes in the attitudes of neighboring countries and the United States could lead to a decrease in Iran's impact in international negotiations. These developments seem likely to be detrimental to Iran's economic and political interests and may push the country towards reconsidering its strategies.
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