The Strait of Hormuz, as one of the most important waterways in the world, has always played a vital role in the trade and economy of Gulf Arab countries. The closure of this strait, especially following the recent war, has caused a serious shock to the economies of these countries. Given that the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of the world's oil, any disruption in this route could have widespread consequences for global markets and especially for Gulf countries.
Decline in Economic Growth in 2026
Analyses indicate that the economic growth of Gulf Arab countries will significantly decline in 2026. Many of these countries are heavily dependent on oil exports, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means a reduction in oil revenues and consequently a decrease in public and private investments in these countries. This situation could lead to unemployment and social dissatisfaction, which in turn threatens the political stability of these countries.
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The Role of Sovereign Wealth Funds
The sovereign wealth funds of Gulf countries, with assets exceeding $5 trillion, are recognized as one of the main tools to cope with economic pressures. These funds can temporarily alleviate some of these pressures, but they are not capable of solving the structural problems and vulnerabilities present in the economies of these countries on their own. The continuation of this situation may lead to deeper economic challenges.
Ultimately, the fact that the economies of Gulf Arab countries are heavily reliant on oil underscores the necessity for economic diversification and the establishment of stronger infrastructures to support sustainable growth in the future. These countries must seek solutions to reduce their dependence on oil resources and strengthen other economic sectors.
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