U.S. President Donald Trump, while engaged in a conflict with Iran, is unlikely to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year. However, his effects on the awarding committee will still be felt indirectly. Last year, the prize was awarded to María Corina Machado from Venezuela, which was unique in the 125-year history of the award due to Trump's persistent pressures to receive it.
Consequences of Political Pressures on Awarding the Prize
Machado, after receiving the prize, presented her Nobel gold medal to Trump to garner his support for her efforts toward democracy in Venezuela. For this reason, it seems that the Nobel Committee will act more cautiously this year and will consider whether awarding the prize to a specific individual could place them under Trump's pressure.
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Håkon Gjerløw, the interim director of the Oslo Peace Research Institute, has pointed out that the Nobel Committee may pay attention to whether this choice would harm the winner more than benefit them. This could mean selecting Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, or Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on Palestinian Territories.
Potential Candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize
Pope Leo, the first pope born in the United States, has announced that he will continue to criticize the war and has made strong statements in response to Trump's criticisms calling him "weak." Additionally, the Pope's messages regarding artificial intelligence, promoting dialogue and peaceful solutions to conflicts, and his efforts for migrant rights could position him as a suitable candidate for the prize.
Francesca Albanese from Italy has also faced criticism for her stance against Israel's actions in the war against Hamas and the occupation of the West Bank. However, the Nobel Committee may lean towards selecting non-controversial and safe options to avoid provoking Trump, who has previously made harsh criticisms of Norway for not receiving the Nobel Prize.
According to Øyvind Stenersen, a historian and expert on the Nobel Peace Prize, the committee is under pressure to respond to Trump's challenges in the international system. In this context, this year the prize may be awarded to the International Criminal Court, while Washington is preparing extensive sanctions against this institution.
Ultimately, due to political pressures and international challenges, Trump is unlikely to win, but his name has been proposed as a candidate by leaders from Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan. However, his chances of receiving this award seem "very low."
Maria Ressa, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and Filipino-American journalist, has expressed her criticisms of Trump, stating that "bullies do not run the world" and emphasized the need to uphold ethical standards.
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