Recent developments in the Persian Gulf, especially after the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran, have placed the region in a state of neither war nor peace. In this context, the role of the Gulf states in mediating or potential conflicts has gained greater importance. Dr. Javad Heyran-Nia, head of the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Middle East Strategic Studies Institute, has examined the dilemma of tension for the sheikhdoms.
De-escalation or Pressure on Iran
The Gulf states, in the current situation where the borders of tension with Iran and the U.S. are changing, are moving towards creating a kind of power balance. Their approach before the war began was such that it prevented attacks from the U.S. and Israel and avoided the outbreak of war. However, some reports indicate that several of these countries supported the attacks. At the same time, their main position was that Iran should not harm them in a widespread war.
This war and its regional doctrine have affected the Gulf states and caused them damage. Especially after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, some of these countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, have become more vulnerable due to the lack of alternative routes.
Diverse Approaches of the Gulf States
Countries like Saudi Arabia adopted a more conservative approach towards Iran during and after the war, supporting both diplomacy and pressure that would not lead to increased tension. In contrast, the United Arab Emirates, by getting closer to Israel, was actually seeking a stricter approach, but after a while returned to diplomacy.
Meanwhile, Oman and Qatar prefer to support diplomacy and call for mediation to resolve tensions. The overall approach of these countries emphasizes supporting diplomacy and simultaneous pressure, so that economic pressure is applied to Iran without leading to renewed conflict. The goal of this pressure is to weaken Iran's economy and achieve negotiations for concessions on nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz.
Given the costs of the recent war and rising tensions, the question arises whether the UAE and Saudi Arabia would be willing to participate more robustly in the U.S. and Israel's military campaign against Iran if a new round of conflict begins. This depends on Iran's reaction and that of its allies and may lead to changes in the conservative approach of these countries.
It seems that the Gulf countries are moving towards a new security architecture with the presence of the U.S. and Israel in opposition to Iran. This new architecture will be different for each country. The UAE seeks to expand Israel's role in the region, while Saudi Arabia aims to create a political coalition between Turkey and Pakistan while maintaining its military relations with the U.S.
