ICICI Bank has predicted that gold prices will rise to $4600 to $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2027. This financial institution has stated that this trend may occur with the decline of real yields in the United States and the strengthening of the dollar, while gold is expected to stabilize at a high level until the end of 2026.
Gold Market Analysis in the Second Half of 2026
This bank predicts that gold prices will fluctuate between $4200 and $4600 per ounce in the second half of 2026 and will face a slight upward trend in the first half of 2027. The institution also believes that investment demand, ongoing purchases by central banks, and the use of gold as a hedge against geopolitical and financial volatility will provide structural support for this market.
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Short-term and Long-term Impacts on Gold Prices
ICICI Bank's report has pointed to a sharp decline in gold prices in September, which is attributed to rising concerns over U.S. monetary policies, high oil prices, and strong labor market data. However, this institution predicts that these short-term pressures may not be able to reverse gold's overall strength. In August, gold ETFs saw an inflow of $17.8 billion, indicating strong demand in this market.
Additionally, the People's Bank of China purchased 20 tons of gold in August, marking the largest monthly purchase by the country since October 2023. Concerns about the long-term sustainability of the U.S. budget deficit and high public debt, central banks' diversification away from dollar assets, and gold's role as a hedge against market volatility are likely to remain as structural supports.
For India, ICICI Bank predicts that local gold prices will largely be influenced by global prices, with fluctuations in the value of the rupee also exacerbating this issue. The forecast for gold prices in the domestic market until the end of 2026 remains between 1.40 to 1.60 lakh rupees for every 10 grams. Domestic jewelry demand has been limited due to high prices, but wedding demand has remained relatively stable, and festival and wedding activities may support this market.
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