The Gulf countries' plan to prevent the resumption of war between Iran and the United States is based on a multilateral agreement that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within four days after the lifting of sanctions and the significant withdrawal of Houthi forces from their positions inside Yemen.
Nuclear Negotiations and Concessions
The United States is aware of the progress in negotiations but still seeks a concession from Iran. Some European powers believe this concession could include allowing Tehran to permit UN weapons inspectors to return to Iran. Ed Miliband, the British Foreign Secretary, urged Tehran to agree to the return of UN inspectors during a meeting with Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister. However, Iran has not accepted this request so far and has stated that it is only willing to discuss its nuclear program within the framework of principled negotiations.
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European diplomats believe that allowing inspectors to return and visit Iran's bombed nuclear facilities is at least a necessary condition for reaching an agreement with Donald Trump, the President of the United States. In contrast, Iran has focused on guarantees related to the lifting of sanctions; guarantees that it demands in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's Flexibility and Mediation Approach
Ali Bagheri, the Deputy Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has stated that Tehran is ready to modify its previous proposal. According to this proposal, the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened seven days after the lifting of economic sanctions; now Iran is prepared to reduce this deadline to four days. Tehran's increased flexibility in this regard could pave the way for an agreement, but disagreements over nuclear inspections remain. Meanwhile, concerns about the possibility of renewed attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran have heightened the urgency of diplomatic efforts.
Another sign of Iran's flexibility is its gradual acceptance of a mediating role in the Yemen conflict. Mohsen Rezaei, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, met on Tuesday with Ibrahim al-Dailami, the Houthi ambassador in Tehran. This meeting took place one day after a high-level delegation from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan visited Tehran; a delegation that discussed Saudi conditions for ending the Yemen war and establishing a more sustainable security structure for the region.
During the meeting between Iran and representatives from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, Tehran refrained from bringing up its nuclear program and instead directed the discussions towards a broader vision for regional security; a vision that includes Iran and the Gulf countries and calls for a reduction or end to the military presence of the United States in the Middle East.
One of Iran's main strategic goals is to achieve a non-aggression pact and end its regional isolation; an isolation that has overshadowed Tehran's relations with parts of the Gulf countries since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The joint commitment of the six Arab countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council to such a framework could create the groundwork for reducing tensions with Iran. This agreement may also make it easier for Tehran to accept difficult concessions in the nuclear case.
Badr al-Busaidi, the Foreign Minister of Oman and a key supporter of the comprehensive regional security plan, believes that the U.S. government has also realized that the region is moving in this direction. He stated that if Iran once again joins the peace plan among the eight countries of the region and the world, it will create enormous economic capacity for the countries of the region and their foreign partners.
Abbas Araghchi also emphasized the importance of a security agreement after the war in a television program in Iran, stating: "Recently, there has been talk of a new war, but I am already thinking about the post-war period. Whether a war occurs or not, our policies remain unchanged." This position indicates that Tehran is not only seeking to prevent a new attack but is also looking to redefine its position in the Middle Eastern security order.
However, reaching an agreement still depends on resolving fundamental differences: Iran seeks guarantees for the lifting of sanctions and acceptance of a comprehensive regional security framework, while the United States and European powers emphasize nuclear concessions and the return of international inspectors. The success of diplomatic efforts depends on whether the parties can consolidate these demands into a common agreement or not.
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