The Israeli elections next week are likely to change the leadership of the country, but its strategy towards Iran as its main enemy will remain intact. Analysts and regional politicians believe that the use of military force as Israel's primary tool in facing threats will continue, and achieving a Palestinian state will become a distant dream.
Impact of the October 7 Attacks
Recent developments, especially the October 7, 2023 attacks on southern Israeli communities by Palestinian military groups, have reinforced the strategic assumptions of Israeli policy. Some analysts predict that if Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing allies win, Israel's security policies may escalate, leading to increased conflict with Iran and greater control over the West Bank.
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No Change in Policies
Netanyahu has recently emphasized the need to prioritize "prevention and aggression instead of containment and defense." While the upcoming elections are a competition between the Likud party and its opponents led by Gadi Eisenkot, analysts believe that no fundamental change in Israel's policies towards the Palestinians will be observed. Given that Israeli political parties are trying to adopt tougher positions in this regard, there is a consensus among them on the rejection of a Palestinian state and the continuation of settlement expansion.
At the regional level, some politicians point out whether confrontation with Iran has become a fundamental principle in Middle Eastern security, regardless of who wins the elections. Netanyahu has clearly expressed in his speeches an interest in seeking to overthrow the regime in Iran beyond merely containing it, and this approach seems likely to continue.
Despite criticisms of Netanyahu's policies towards Gaza and the West Bank, some Gulf leaders see him as a politician who can maintain pressure on Iran. This situation has created a dilemma for them; they seek to limit Iranian influence but also criticize Netanyahu's expansionist policies.
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