Max Boot, a historian and foreign policy analyst, has examined the status of oil exports and its impact on Iran-U.S. relations in an article. According to Boot, the economic and military war between the two countries has entered its eighth month, and recent developments indicate significant changes in the oil market.
Oil Market and Exports Status
With the increase in oil exports from the Middle East, especially from countries other than Iran, a larger volume of oil is being supplied in global markets. Boot refers to estimates from the private company Kpler, which indicate that crude oil exports in September have reached nearly 70% of pre-war levels. Meanwhile, major oil producers associated with the U.S. have been exporting about 13 million barrels of oil daily, which represents a significant decrease compared to February.
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On the other hand, Iran has been unable to transfer its oil to global markets due to sanctions and restrictions arising from the Strait of Hormuz. Boot references statements from Donald Trump, the President of the United States, who claims that Washington has "almost complete control" over the Strait of Hormuz and will soon emerge victorious in the war with Iran.
Economic and Analytical Consequences
However, Boot emphasizes that the increase in oil exports alone cannot be seen as a sign of Iran's defeat. He points to existing disagreements regarding the actual level of oil exports and states that the reality is more complex than it appears. While the increase in oil exports is a positive development for the U.S., there is no reason to interpret it as Iran's readiness to surrender to U.S. demands.
Boot also notes the sharp rise in energy prices and its negative impact on the global economy. Particularly in the U.S., fuel prices have significantly increased, and this economic pressure may work in favor of Iran. Boot references the experiences of other countries such as Cuba and North Korea in facing sanctions, stating that the economic pressure from the war is unlikely to force the Iranian government to capitulate.
He also addresses the issue of energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and the damages caused by the war, stating that this conflict has harmed refineries and processing facilities, limiting the export of petroleum products. Boot concludes that the economic crisis for Iran is far more severe than in other parts of the world.
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