The continuation of the crisis in the Persian Gulf has impacted the security and economic development of the regional countries and raised fundamental questions about the future of this region. Until now, the security equation of the Persian Gulf was largely based on the presence of foreign powers, especially the United States. The regional countries defined their economic development alongside their defensive capabilities and the security of energy and shipping lines within the framework of this presence. However, recent crises show that even the presence of a major military power does not necessarily mean complete immunity for the regional countries.
The Necessity of Regional Resilience
In these circumstances, the concept of "regional resilience" emerges as a potential response. Countries must be prepared not only to prevent war but also to continue economic activities and maintain energy flow in the event of a crisis. The importance of this shift becomes more apparent when we look at the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway is one of the most important connections between the Persian Gulf economy and the global economy, and any disruption in it will have widespread consequences for the energy market and global trade.
Economic Consequences of the Ongoing Crisis
The continuation of the crisis in the Persian Gulf primarily affects oil and gas exports and the security of energy supply. The regional countries, including Iran, are heavily dependent on these resources, and any problems in this area could jeopardize their economic development. Additionally, the ongoing crisis disrupts trade between this region and the world and affects foreign investments. In other words, investors seek security, and in times of crisis, their willingness to invest in these countries decreases.
Recent reports indicate that the projected economic growth of the regional countries for the coming years has significantly decreased. The World Bank has announced that the projected economic growth of the Persian Gulf countries in 2026 has dropped from 4.4 percent to 1.3 percent. The International Monetary Fund has also emphasized that the continuation of conflicts could exacerbate economic pressures and financial constraints on governments. This situation will ultimately have a negative impact on the welfare and comfort of the people in the regional countries.
None of the coastal countries of the Persian Gulf can achieve sustainable economic development without establishing security and stability. Achieving this goal also depends on the stability of neighboring countries. For example, Saudi Arabia with its Vision 2030, the United Arab Emirates with the development of financial centers, Qatar with gas exports, and Oman with port capacities are pursuing long-term plans that are dependent on the stability of the regional environment.
Now, the countries of the Persian Gulf face an important choice: to continue a situation where the economic costs gradually increase or to move towards understanding and regional cooperation arrangements that can provide the necessary stability and security for sustainable development. The reality is that the economic development of Iran and the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf can be realized in an environment of regional stability, expanded trade, and mutual trust. Therefore, reducing tensions and initiating constructive dialogues among the regional countries will not only be a measure to manage the current crisis but also a joint investment for the economic future and the welfare of future generations.
