Ethiopian government forces have approached the capital of the Tigray region, Mekelle, raising concerns about the escalation of conflicts into a wider war. Given the severed diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, developments in this region are rapidly changing.
Situation in Mekelle and Progress of Government Forces
Residents of Mekelle and a diplomat have reported that the Ethiopian National Defense Forces and allied militias are close to the city. Banks and shops in the city have been closed, and according to local residents, government forces have rapidly advanced towards Tigray. The fighting began last week and is considered the worst escalation of violence since the civil war of 2020-2022.
Read more: Pentagon Deploys Thousands More Marines to the Middle East
Meanwhile, suspicious airstrikes in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, indicate that the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and its allies may have greater strike capabilities than previously thought. Ethiopian military and government officials have not responded to requests for comments on recent developments or the suspicious attacks in Addis Ababa.
Spread of Conflicts and Regional Concerns
Analysts believe that these conflicts may extend beyond Ethiopia's borders, especially as regional powers compete for influence. Tigray borders Eritrea to the north and Sudan, which has been embroiled in a civil war for over three years, to the west. The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting the opposing coalition, a claim these countries have denied.
On Thursday, the Ethiopian government announced that it had closed its embassy in Eritrea due to the hostile actions of that country and requested 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave Ethiopia within 48 hours. In response, Eritrea severed all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia. The two countries were previously engaged in a border war from 1998 to 2000 and only resumed relations in 2018.
While Eritrea fought alongside the Ethiopian federal government against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 war, their relations have soured due to Ethiopia's claim of needing access to the sea for its security and economy. Eritrea is concerned that Ethiopia may seek to forcibly access its port of Assab, while Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, has stated that the country intends to achieve maritime access through peaceful means.
Federal forces and allied militias have captured a town about 75 kilometers south of Mekelle, and according to a resident of Mekelle, government forces are now only 30 kilometers away from the city. On Thursday, Debretsion Gebremichael, the head of the TPLF, acknowledged that federal forces have occupied some areas of the region but stated that his forces would counterattack at the appropriate time.
In a statement, the African Union Commission has called on Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to exercise maximum restraint. In the lead-up to the recent conflicts, the TPLF formed an alliance with six other armed groups in Ethiopia aimed at overthrowing Abiy Ahmed's government. While the TPLF and allied fighters initially made some progress in the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions, government forces claim that these advances have been largely reversed.
Explosions were heard on Wednesday night in Addis Ababa, with a source linked to the opposition coalition stating that these explosions are related to targeted airstrikes against the Ethiopian National Defense Forces headquarters there. If confirmed, this would be the first known airstrike by anti-government forces on Addis Ababa, which is hundreds of kilometers away from the northern front lines.
Read more: Qatar University Ranks First in the Arab World · New U.S. Sanctions Hurt Iran's Automotive and Rail Industries
