Matthew Gould, in a note published on September 25, analyzed the current situation of the Islamic Republic and the Revolutionary Guard, addressing the challenges present in Iran. He particularly noted that despite widespread protests and the death of Ali Khamenei in attacks by the U.S. and Israel, the Iranian government has managed to remain in power.
Matthew Gould's Analysis of the Islamic Republic's Situation
Gould began his note by referencing three comments made by Donald Trump regarding the protests in Iran. On January 12, 2026, as thousands of protesters took to the streets, Trump advised them to continue their protests and promised assistance. These remarks were made especially at a time when Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S. and Israeli airstrike on March 1, 2026. Gould believes that if a change in leadership was to lead to a change in government, that moment was the best opportunity for such a change.
Read more: Iranian Officials Emphasized Diplomacy Against the United States
Challenges Facing the Iranian Government
He went on to mention two major developments that the Islamic Republic has survived this year. The first development was the protests that began in January 2026, recognized as the most serious protests in the history of the Islamic Republic. These protests did not only start with students and the middle class but began in the Grand Bazaar of Tehran and spread to all provinces. In this context, a European diplomat reported that the number of protesters in the streets of Tehran exceeded one million.
The second development was the death of Ali Khamenei, who had led the Islamic Republic for 36 years. However, despite these developments, the Iranian government has managed to regain power, particularly as leadership has been transferred to a new generation that is known to be much more radical.
Five Factors for Change in Iran
Gould continued his note by mentioning five key factors that he believes are essential for the overthrow of the Iranian government. The first factor is the return of people to the streets. He believes that Iranians must once again continue to protest despite the harms caused by violence and rebuild the coalition that was formed earlier in the year.
The second factor is the endurance of protests after repression and internet shutdowns. Gould believes that the government will only face a real threat if protests can continue after repression. The third factor is the establishment of infrastructure for organizing citizens even without the internet. He referred to the disruptions caused by government actions that hindered protesters' access to information and communications.
The fourth factor is the destabilization of security forces. Gould pointed out two historical examples from revolutions, stating that military forces typically succeed in separating from the government when they become doubtful. Finally, the fifth factor refers to the necessity of having a future for mid-level officials in the next regime.
Warning About Power Vacuum After Change
Gould concluded his note by warning that if the current government were to be overthrown one day, the U.S. and other countries should not expect a smooth and easy transfer of power to a new government. In particular, there is a likelihood of a period of chaos and the emergence of separatist groups in various regions of Iran. He emphasized that without the realization of these five conditions, no amount of airstrikes or encouragement from foreign countries can aid in changing the government.
Read more: Iran's President at the United Nations and Response to Trump's Threats · Hostile Attacks by the Islamic Republic on Bahrain and Kuwait Were Repelled
