Despite the damages from recent conflicts with the USA and Israel, Iran has managed to maintain a significant portion of its political and military capabilities. The war that began on February 28 was designed to limit Iran's nuclear and missile programs, but it did not fully achieve the objectives sought by the USA.
Changes in Military and Security Equations
Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabatabai, an international relations expert, has noted in an analysis that the conflict between Iran and the USA will ultimately end through diplomacy, but the possibility of a large-scale war cannot be ruled out. In this conflict, Iran took control of the Strait of Hormuz and imposed extensive restrictions on traffic in this route. This action not only had economic impacts on the energy market but also demonstrated Iran's military power against external threats.
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Security Concerns and Tehran's Shift in Approach
Despite maintaining some capabilities, Iranian officials remain concerned about increasing military and economic pressures from the USA. They believe that Washington's current restrictions may change in the future, and this concern is also related to the impacts of domestic policies in the USA. At the beginning of the war, Abbas Araqchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, was presenting a report to senior officials when the attacks from the USA and Israel began. These attacks led to increased distrust in Tehran towards Washington and shifted Iran's approach towards more aggressive actions.
In this context, Iran has also expanded the scope of some of its actions, adding the infrastructure and interests of regional countries that, in Tehran's view, play a role in supporting the USA to its calculations, in addition to US military targets. This shift in approach is particularly serious in the context of some alternative energy routes in the region still being active.
Given these conditions, the Strait of Hormuz has gained a special position as one of the most important energy passages in the world, and any restrictions there could impact global oil and gas markets. Iran is trying to use this position as a leverage, although continuing such a situation will also be costly for its economy.
Ultimately, the developments that have occurred in recent years have changed Iranian officials' views on the possibility of a sustainable agreement with the USA. Especially after the USA's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement and recent military attacks, the likelihood of achieving a permanent ceasefire has significantly decreased.
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