The war with Iran has called into question the Gulf countries' confidence in the American security umbrella and their economic resilience, putting them to a tough test. The successive crises of the past two decades have increased the global significance of the Gulf countries — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. These countries played a key role in maintaining the momentum of global investment flows during the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, by providing wealth from their national investment funds.
Geopolitical Changes and Expansion of Influence
The transformation of the Arab regional order following the Arab Spring of 2011 paved the way for the expansion of the regional influence of the Gulf countries, particularly Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. These countries became more active and bolder players on the international stage, managing to stabilize their global positions with flexible and opportunistic foreign policies.
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Since 2018, changes in the competition among great powers and the collapse of the international order have pushed the Gulf countries towards adapting to new conditions. They have become players that various parties compete to win over, and they have had an active presence in international forums such as the G20 and BRICS.
Results of the Iran War and Challenges Ahead
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has examined the current crisis and its impacts on the strategic and security partnerships of the Gulf countries in a report. This war, considering its consequences, seems to have a lasting impact on their foreign, defense, and economic policies, being regarded as the most destructive conflict and the cause of the deepest economic disruption these countries have experienced in the 20th and 21st centuries.
The Gulf countries, which have built economies with global connections, have based their assumptions since the early 1990s on the belief that American security guarantees would remain valid. Confident in their security, they have formulated ambitious economic visions that rely on technology to transition them into the post-hydrocarbon era.
However, the Iran war has challenged these assumptions and pushed the Gulf countries' patterns in foreign policy, defense, and economy to the limits of their capabilities. The external image of these countries as resilient and steadfast, despite minimal casualties and the absence of social crises, is at risk.
Throughout the war, the Gulf countries have taken swift emergency measures, including strengthening regional alliances and increasing infrastructure capacity. However, the difficult work still lies ahead, and they need to revise their foreign policies and military structures. These revisions are essential for achieving greater resilience and strength in a much more unstable environment.
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