The results of the U.S. midterm elections, which led to the defeat of the Republicans and the strengthening of the Democrats, could enhance China's position in trade negotiations with Washington. However, analysts warn that Beijing should be cautious in celebrating the troubles of a U.S. president whose successor may have different reactions.
Challenges Facing China
American voters turned against his party due to rising living costs and tensions arising from Trump's trade wars with China and other countries, handing control of Congress to the Democrats. These political developments may compel Trump to act more cautiously towards China and avoid disrupting his fragile trade agreements. According to Shen Weizhong, a former official at China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, "The Chinese are well aware that the new president may differ significantly from Trump."
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Short-term and Long-term Impacts
The next two years may not be smooth for China. There is a risk that Trump, facing domestic constraints, may seek foreign policy victories. Moreover, a Congress controlled by the Democrats may push him towards facilitating arms sales to Taiwan, which is a red line for Beijing.
Some analysts believe that Trump may refrain from aggressive actions in an effort to maintain stable relations with China. Given that his remaining time in office is dwindling, Trump may seek to gain Beijing's cooperation on other foreign policy issues, including ending the Ukraine war or holding another summit with Kim Jong-un.
China, considering its deep trade relations with Russia and North Korea, may use these leverage points to extract concessions from Trump. At the same time, Beijing faces a Congress that seriously emphasizes human rights issues and oversight of Chinese investments, and is also seeking to secure a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan.
Shen says, "The Chinese will certainly respond strongly to this issue, and it could become the number one risk for China after the midterm elections."
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