Iran, as a key player in regional developments, especially in its relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, is facing new challenges in terms of national security. The Iran war has pressured these countries to reassess some of their deepest security assumptions.
Undermining Security Assumptions
For decades, the strategies of the Gulf countries were based on a combination of U.S. military protection, defense purchases, and regulated relations with Iran. It was expected that American forces would prevent large-scale Iranian attacks and that bilateral diplomacy could keep these countries safe from larger conflicts. However, following recent developments, these assumptions have been severely undermined.
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The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the military responses of this country demonstrate the reality that neutrality and reconciliation cannot guarantee security. Furthermore, despite the Gulf Cooperation Council's emphasis that "an attack on one member is an attack on all," military responses have largely remained national rather than collective.
New Deterrence Strategy
The Gulf countries must realize that no single tool can provide sufficient deterrence. Accordingly, new strategies will emerge that include ongoing U.S. protection, strengthening national capabilities, and operational coordination among the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
Iran does not need to defeat the United States or the Gulf countries conventionally. Rather, it only needs to create enough uncertainty and disruption to impose disproportionate costs on these countries. This means that damage to infrastructure and disruption of shipping can have widespread economic impacts on the Gulf countries.
Layered defenses and economic resilience should be understood as tools for deterrence. If infrastructure is quickly rebuilt and essential services continue, Tehran may realize that its attacks will not yield any meaningful political gains.
Given Iran's geographical proximity, the Gulf countries are developing more resilient infrastructure and diversifying energy sources. These measures can help mitigate the impact of Iranian attacks and contribute to security and stability in the region.
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