The new United Nations report shows that current predictions regarding global warming are exceeding previous estimates. According to this report, even in the most optimistic scenario, average global temperatures will rise to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by mid-century.
The Urgency of Immediate Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy and climate policies that have helped reduce emissions in many countries, this report emphasizes the necessity of immediate and serious reductions. According to the report, greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 18% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels, and this reduction should reach 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040. Meanwhile, current national plans only indicate a reduction of 5 to 8% by 2030 and 11 to 15% by 2035.
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New Predictions About Global Warming
This report predicts that if current policies continue, global warming will reach 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, and if various countries fulfill their climate commitments, this amount will decrease to 2.6 degrees. Both of these estimates are higher than last year's predictions and relate to the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and new assessments of historical emissions.
Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, emphasized ahead of the next round of climate negotiations in Turkey, COP31, that efforts to reduce emissions causing floods, wildfires, and other natural disasters should not be abandoned. He stated, "An increase in temperature does not mean surrender. We can still minimize this increase and bring temperatures below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century."
According to the Paris Agreement in 2015, various countries committed to striving to limit the temperature increase to below 2 degrees and ideally to 1.5 degrees. However, it now seems that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is no longer possible with no or minimal temperature increase. Therefore, the UN has presented a new scenario called "the least possible increase," which approximately shows a 50% chance of returning temperatures to 1.5 degrees or lower by 2100.
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